Climate Change and Flood Risk
How climate change is increasing flood risk in England and what it means for the future.
General guidance for England
Climate Change and Flooding
How Climate Change Increases Flood Risk
- More intense rainfall: A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture
- Sea level rise: Global sea levels rising about 3.5mm per year
- Changing weather patterns: More frequent and intense storms
- Wetter winters: Climate projections show significantly wetter winters for England
- Drier summers but more intense storms: Summer rainfall may decrease overall but come in more intense bursts
UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)
By 2070:
- Winter rainfall could increase by 10-35%
- Sea levels could rise by 20-80cm
- Summer storms could become 10-20% more intense
- Peak river flows could increase by 25-105%
EA Climate Change Allowances
The EA requires planners and developers to account for climate change:
- River flows: +35% for most developments
- Rainfall intensity: +40% for residential developments
- Sea level rise: Up to 1.21m by 2100
What This Means
- Properties currently at low risk may become medium or high risk
- Existing flood defences may become inadequate
- More properties will need flood resilience measures
- Insurance costs will likely increase in some areas
Adaptation Strategies
- Invest in natural flood management (rewilding, tree planting, peat restoration)
- Improve urban drainage through SuDS
- Create more floodplain storage
- Build back better after flood events
- Plan long-term managed retreat from some coastlines
Official guidance and checks
Rules, schemes and flood conditions can change. Use these primary sources before making a safety, property, insurance or planning decision.